Yankees: Premature postseason predictions are not promising - Lady Loves Pinstripes Yankees: Premature postseason predictions are not promising - Lady Loves Pinstripes Yankees: Premature postseason predictions are not promising - Lady Loves Pinstripes
 

Yankees: Premature postseason predictions are not promising

Fangraphs.com, Baseball Prospctus and top baseball sabermetrician Clay Davenport predictions all assert that the 2014 New York Yankees fate is destined to follow in last season’s footsteps.

Translation…there will once again be no postseason baseball played in the Bronx comes October.

2014 New York Yankees - Season Predictions
SOURCE
WINS
LOSES
RUN DIFFERENTIAL
RUNS SCORED
RUNS ALLOWED
Fangraphs837916n/an/a
C. Davenport857732692660
PECOTA828011715704

Fangraphs gave the Yankees a 33.4% chance of making the postseason, and a 2.9% possibility of winning the 2014 World Series.

Baseball Prospectus infamous PECOTA postseason projections will not be shared until the regular season starts. But with BP’s project low of 82 wins, the percentage will not be greater than 25.

All three projected a positive run differential for the 2014 Yankees. At least that is an improvement from last season’s -21 RD, but not significant enough to offer fans much comfort.

The reason is the Yankees had a run differential in 2012 of 136, 210 in 2011, 166 in 2010, 162 in 2009 and 62 in 2008.

English: Joe Girardi presents President Barack...

English: Joe Girardi presents President Barack Obama with a New York Yankees signed team jersey (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Capisce?

The bottom line is these are very premature, hit or miss predictions.

Still, if these hold any truth, the Rays and Red Sox are both postseason bound again and neither team will need to win above 90 games to do it.

It also would entail that Yankees fans are in for another season of enduring watching a team hanging on by the skin of their teeth into September again.

Currently, Vegas odds stand at 83.5 wins in total, which lands the Yankees in 15th place out 30 MLB ball clubs. That number can and will hopefully look different by Opening Day.

But to be fair, you have to presume that last year’s mess has serious impact on this season’s outlook.

The one thing these predictions do make certain is  the possibility of the Yankees repeating the 2013 season feasible.

And that fact, my fellow Yankees fans, is downright petrifying to think about.

 

 

Enhanced by Zemanta